First fantasy football draft of 2013!

Well today I couldn't wait any longer, and decided to do the first draft of the year! What a draft it turned out to be, getting ridiculus value in the early rounds and nailing some good picks late. I'll go over some of my thoughts as I explain how the draft unfolded. Figured I'd throw this into a blog since our FF site is not up yet! Sit back enjoy, feel free to try and nitpick me!

This was a 12 team PPR snake draft, and I had the 9th overall selection.

Pick 1: I was really hoping that Calvin Johnson would fall to me in this spot, and than land a top 5 WR with the next pick as well. This did not happen as CJ went one pick ahead of me. Luckily tho Lesean McCoy fell down the boards and that was an easy pick for me at the 9 spot! Shady McCoy is my #4 RB in ppr, and the only Philadelphia Eagle I tend to target.
Pick 2: As I stated before I wanted to get 2 top 5 WR's in the first 2 rounds so this pick was a no brainier as well, as Brandon Marshall fell back to me in round 2. I would have considered Matt Forte or Dez Bryant here as well but both were gone before my pick. Either way I love this pick and always have been very fond of Mr. B Marsh! Marc Trestman's offense is going to be a good thing for Marshall this year. He could honestly push Marshall into Calvin Johnson territory, who everyone thinks is the sole #1 WR.
Pick 3: This is where it gets good! I had Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush at the top of my que. Sproles went a few picks ahead of me, and some how Bush feel to me in the latter part of the 3rd! WOW this should not happen in a PPR draft! Standard I could see it, but never PPR. I have R. Bush and D. Sproles 11 and 12 on my RB rankings. Both guys will catch the ball a ton in there uptempo offenses this year. I know there is some who will argue injury concerns with Bush, but I address that with a latter handcuff pick!
Pick 4: When it's good, it's great! Lamar Miller come on down! Could not believe I just started this draft out landing this RB core and still got Marshall. Miller is normally a early 3rd round pick and some who are high on him think about him in the late 2nd. This kid is talented and he is the only real talented back in Miami. Sorry Daniel Thomas but I have never bought into you! This was another Walmart Super Saver, yep that's the line I'm going with! Who can beat there prices, I mean come on its friggen Walmart lol.
Pick 5: Here is a pick that you will either love or hate. I did not like the tier of WR's left because they flew off the board much faster than a normal draft would entail. So I decided to go with Vernon Davis. He is my 3rd TE on the board and dam near my 2nd. Jason Witten had already gone a round earlier and I really believe late 5th round for Davis is very good value. I really like the rapport that he has worked on with Kaepernick, and really think he is the #1 target in that offense with Crabtree injured.
Pick 6: This pick I struggled with. I ended up going with Tavon Austin and his upside he would provide to this already very solid team. The reason it was such a hard pick was again the WR depth left. My normal guys I target in this spot where all gone! Cecil Shorts, James Jones and a few others gone before round 6! So I began debating Austin, Mike Wallace, and Desean Jackson. I really don't like WR's who change teams and the camp reports of Wallace have not exactly been glowing for him. Jackson I do like, but having McCoy already, I didn't feel that a double dip on that team was the wisest of selections. So I reached my decision and went with Austin to be my WR2.
Pick 7: This pick was a reach, no way around it! But here's why: WR depth and I had 3 QB's in my que with only one team behind me that needed one. So I decided on the best WR available and he is a guy who I do like a lot this year. Josh Gordon, yes I know he is suspended for 2 weeks but it does not matter to me. I won't be needing to start him week 1 or 2 and he is very good depth for me. I think this guy is a stud WR waiting to really break out this year, and he has the QB to get him the deep ball. I'm usually targeting him in the 9th but this will do.
Pick 8: The QB's I had in my que as I just mentioned where, RGIII, Russel Wilson and Tony Romo. The team who needed a QB decided to pick Tony Romo. That actually made this a really tough choice for me because I really like both RGIII and Wilson. I do have Griffin ranked higher than Wilson and ultiamtely I decided to stick to my rankings. I think His upside and ceiling are higher than Wilson's. Selecting RGIII does however make my team vulnerable if he is to re-injure himself. So I must grab a solid back up QB earlier than usual.
Pick 9: This to me was another great value pick. Mark Ingram was my 9th round selection. This guy has had a great camp and is healthy for the first time in his short NFL career. Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints have continued to say, they are going to be dedicated to the run this year. That can only bode well for the recent Heisman Trophy winner!
Pick 10: Here is my, may I be the first to say stud back up QB! Yea I am that high on Andy Dalton. If you don't believe in the Red Rifle than thats fine by me. I will continue to grab this guy in every draft! He had a solid first year, a much improved 2nd year, and his 3rd year will be top 10 worthy! The Cinncinatti Bengals have done nothing but give this guy more weapons to an already potent offense. They went out and drafted Giovanni Bernard, and Tyler Eifert both who will make big impacts to this offense. They already have A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, Mahamed Sanu, and sleeper alrert Dane Sanzenbacher! Dalton will produce at a high level this year and I love having him as a back up QB.
Pick 11: Went with the upside of Ryan Broyles. This guy not only set the all-time NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision record for career receptions, but he was also twice an All-American. Did I mention he is on a team with Matthew Stafford who throws the ball enough to lose an arm?
Pick 12: This was the handcuff pick, also considered a reach but in my opinion a needed one. Joique Bell is the handcuff to Reggie Bush and it helps that I like him. He's a lot like Bush in a sense and will step right if an injury occurs.
Pick 13: UGH I missed my Bengals DST! Yea I know I'm high on the Bengals this year, and at 33-1 to win the Superbowl, I'm all over that!! lol anyways, I decided to go with a back up TE here one who did not have the same bye as Davis. I like Jordan Cameron as a great value upside pick here. I think in the Chud/Norval scheme he could be a top 10 fantasy TE.
Pick 14: Nothing much to say here. Took the best available DST left in New England.
Pick 15: Again blah blah stupid kicker.
Pick 16: Was a last round debate, between a few guys and ultimately went with Dujuan Harris. I like Eddie Lacy a lot, and as a die hard Packer fan I hop he stays healthy. Reality being that he has proven not be I like Dujuan Harris here. It's funny but he is still being said to be the #1RB for Green Bay, but I know that's just Motivation for Lacy.

Bovada Tournament 7/13

It's been a while since I blogged last, figured this would be an interesting hand to debate. I tweeted about the hand yesterday and thought to myself, I think this hand needs a further description? So why not throw a blog together about this re-play.

Anyways, the tournament was on Bovada and had about 275 runners. This was a faster pace structure and had influenced most of my decision making throughout the tournament. I'd also like to state for what its worth, I ran all the way through the field with only 2 premium hands, 1010 & AK. I swear I don't remember what two aces look like!

I promise we're getting to the hand now. We were down to 14 people and avg chips were sitting around 55k. The blinds were at 2k-4k w/300ante, I had roughly 52k in chips. So in this spot the chips were shallow and I had a "M" of about 7. The pot was opened to 12k, now not one but two players moved all in for about 20k each. Comes to me in the BB, and I have KJ starring at me. Not the best hand to be doing this with, but I weighed my options. There was roughly 60k in the pot now, I had 4k invested and the original raiser had me covered by a good 25k. Figured his calling ranges to be premiums but possibly as light as AQ-99.

I figured tho, I was only risking an extra 16k to win the 60k pot against 2 all ins with various ranges. I obviously don't mind KJ vs 2 random hands in that spot, but I couldn't just call. It was fold or 5 bet jam over the top. So maybe the aggrotistical side of me made this decision? Knowing there was a chance I could be dead, I thought about it and ultimately decided that the 5 bet jam was my best play.

I would love to hear thoughts on this hand, to how you would have played it. Is folding here a better spot to you guys or is this the correct play every time no matter the read giving the circumstances??

Key hand in a 90+ person 275 buy in tournament.

This was such a long tournament yesterday, it has literally took me all day to recoup from it. I am hoping to get these blogs out at least once a week now. I'll be more than likely discussing a hand that I have played well or could have changed something.

We started the tournament at 10am, which is so stupid. No one wants to wake up that dam early to play a poker tournament. Being what it was, we had a good field some how and it will be the last one at that time! It better be at least! Anyways, moving through this tourney took all day and took a lot of composure from me to keep my cool as I suffered devastating beats through out.

Finally at around 9pm we hit the last 14 players. I'm sitting with a good stack, about middle of the road with about 110k chip stack. Blinds are now 2k 4k with a 200 ante. This was the key hand that vaulted me into a great position to move on in a big way though the rest of the tourney.

I am the BB, this crazy fishy guy limps +2 brings one more limper in the cutoff and the SB comes along as well. Pot size now with blinds antes and limps sits at 17,400. I look down at 7s7c, I ponder and know that this is a great spot to check and go. See the flop multi-way for zero cost, and have all the implied odds I can dream for here.

Flop comes As 3s 7h. BING! SB checks, I'm checking this flop for 2 reasons. Yes I know there's a draw heavy board, but I know how my opponents will play the hand out from simple reasoning from sitting with them so long. The crazy guy leads a smaller bet, like I had thought he would. He bets 6k, into a pot of 17k(which by the way to me was screaming weakness). Now when he bet his hand I didn't care what he was doing I was paying close attention to the man on his left, waiting to act. I watched as he saw crazy betting and moved right to his chip stack, a sign of strength! Which in this hand is a great thing to pick up on. He makes a standard size raise to what I believe was 21k, which was almost spot on with the pot. I read him for no weaker than AJ, but a very good chance he had, A3 suited due to his limp pre-flop. SB folds, action to me.

Knowing all this, I want to get the money in now and not have the crazy get great odds to draw at something really stupid. Here is the reason this play works so well. I ponder and think that If I make that big all in push right now, this guy is going to read me for a flush draw and snap me off. So that's exactly what I do, I over bet the pot and move all in. Crazy guy folds, and Mr. Ace rag, snaps me off. I flip my set over and he tables Ad 3d. I fade the 2 outs and now am in great position for final table!

NFL Playoffs 2013

Here are my predictions for the upcoming playoffs this year. This can be useful information for anyone doing fantasy football playoff's. The key to the FFP, is to pick the correct teams so you get points for the most weeks. The most weeks possible is 4, being a wild card team that makes it to the superbowl.

My predictions:
Wild Cards
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Washington
Cincinnati over Houston
Baltimore over Indianapolis
2nd Round
Green Bay over San Francisco
Seattle over Atlanta
New England over Baltimore
Denver over Cincinnati
NFC Championship
Green Bay over Seattle
AFC Championship
Denver over New England

Superbowl: Green Bay vs Denver

Tonights MNF Game

here is my post from covers.com
 http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101500771

Here is what I am seeing in a lot of other post's, picks and blogs...I am looking at a lot of bets for New England -4 and in the over 51.

First off this feels like a trap game all around. So this is my dilemma...there are a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball, and I am feeling like this is going to be a slower time of possession type game. Both teams have outstanding rb's and great ground games. We are just not use to New England wanting to run the ball and control the clock so much. But Houston is one of the best teams in the league at doing this...So if my thoughts would be right, the correct bet tonight is to fade both public perceptions, and go with Houston +4 in the under of 51.

What are your thoughts guys??
https://www.youtube.com/user/mbulleto

Open ended straight flush draws, played passively!?

This post is going to be a different way to play your monster drawing hands, such as the open ended straight flush. Normally most people see a huge draw like this and want to push the action right away. Not saying there is anything wrong with this, but I want to talk about one situation where you can disguise your hand and ultimately be more profitable.

First off this situation is going to play out much easier if you have position in the hand! This can be used in multiple spots, so for this example we will say you called a raise pre-flop by a pretty tight player in position. You take a flop with the 6 7 of diamonds. Flop comes out 4d 5d x. Now you have someone betting into you.You know his opening range and c-bet range is premium hands. He makes a standard c-bet, now this is where I think you will extract max value from this hand and not risk losing a huge pot, (although you are favored on this board against the likely over pair). You need to flat here! Why? For multiple reasons. 1 he is almost 100 percent of the time calling your 3-bet or all in, or he will 4 bet all in with an over pair. 2 it will give you a clear indication if he has AK, and gives up on the turn most likely. 3 and this is the best spot, you turn the nut straight and he leads into you again. By flatting once more, you are more than likely making him think "this guy must be on a flush draw!". If a blank falls on the river, he will ignore the straight on board, most of the time. This means there is a very good chance he leads again, or he will check to you. Now you can get as tricky as you want if he finally checked to you. You can make the over sized bet to make it look like you missed your flush and there's a good chance he will call with the over pair.

Remember this scenario is having everything work for you and you not missing your draw. The two good things if you do miss your draw by playing this hand this way. You are not broke, or out of the tournament, and you can still evaluate and decide if you can bluff him on the river if you miss.

Premium hands early in tournaments, early pos.

Today I want to discuss premium hands under the gun or +1+2 spots, in the early on parts of tournaments. The action starts with you and you look down at a hand as powerful as KK. What to do? In the early parts of a tournament, I think you should open your mind to playing this hand very stealth like. Limp this hand! There is usually plenty of action in the early stages of tournaments. If you limp here, and get a couple more limpers, than someone decides to make a standard 3x raise..You now have a pot built for you! Now this is where you need to make the right play and evaluate what kind of table you are at. If its at a very lose table, make the 3 bet big enough where you will get one or 2 callers pre-flop. If it's a very tight table you can make a smaller 3 bet and hope for the same outcome. Hands like KK AA QQ, you are not going to want multiple callers early on in tournaments. Why? Well, simply they are not easy hands to get away from! You hold AA on a board of, 27J rainbow. Looks like a safe board to bet, but if you miss played this pre-flop and let that guy in with the 77 or 22, your not going to like the outcome!