Bovada Tournament 7/13

It's been a while since I blogged last, figured this would be an interesting hand to debate. I tweeted about the hand yesterday and thought to myself, I think this hand needs a further description? So why not throw a blog together about this re-play.

Anyways, the tournament was on Bovada and had about 275 runners. This was a faster pace structure and had influenced most of my decision making throughout the tournament. I'd also like to state for what its worth, I ran all the way through the field with only 2 premium hands, 1010 & AK. I swear I don't remember what two aces look like!

I promise we're getting to the hand now. We were down to 14 people and avg chips were sitting around 55k. The blinds were at 2k-4k w/300ante, I had roughly 52k in chips. So in this spot the chips were shallow and I had a "M" of about 7. The pot was opened to 12k, now not one but two players moved all in for about 20k each. Comes to me in the BB, and I have KJ starring at me. Not the best hand to be doing this with, but I weighed my options. There was roughly 60k in the pot now, I had 4k invested and the original raiser had me covered by a good 25k. Figured his calling ranges to be premiums but possibly as light as AQ-99.

I figured tho, I was only risking an extra 16k to win the 60k pot against 2 all ins with various ranges. I obviously don't mind KJ vs 2 random hands in that spot, but I couldn't just call. It was fold or 5 bet jam over the top. So maybe the aggrotistical side of me made this decision? Knowing there was a chance I could be dead, I thought about it and ultimately decided that the 5 bet jam was my best play.

I would love to hear thoughts on this hand, to how you would have played it. Is folding here a better spot to you guys or is this the correct play every time no matter the read giving the circumstances??

Key hand in a 90+ person 275 buy in tournament.

This was such a long tournament yesterday, it has literally took me all day to recoup from it. I am hoping to get these blogs out at least once a week now. I'll be more than likely discussing a hand that I have played well or could have changed something.

We started the tournament at 10am, which is so stupid. No one wants to wake up that dam early to play a poker tournament. Being what it was, we had a good field some how and it will be the last one at that time! It better be at least! Anyways, moving through this tourney took all day and took a lot of composure from me to keep my cool as I suffered devastating beats through out.

Finally at around 9pm we hit the last 14 players. I'm sitting with a good stack, about middle of the road with about 110k chip stack. Blinds are now 2k 4k with a 200 ante. This was the key hand that vaulted me into a great position to move on in a big way though the rest of the tourney.

I am the BB, this crazy fishy guy limps +2 brings one more limper in the cutoff and the SB comes along as well. Pot size now with blinds antes and limps sits at 17,400. I look down at 7s7c, I ponder and know that this is a great spot to check and go. See the flop multi-way for zero cost, and have all the implied odds I can dream for here.

Flop comes As 3s 7h. BING! SB checks, I'm checking this flop for 2 reasons. Yes I know there's a draw heavy board, but I know how my opponents will play the hand out from simple reasoning from sitting with them so long. The crazy guy leads a smaller bet, like I had thought he would. He bets 6k, into a pot of 17k(which by the way to me was screaming weakness). Now when he bet his hand I didn't care what he was doing I was paying close attention to the man on his left, waiting to act. I watched as he saw crazy betting and moved right to his chip stack, a sign of strength! Which in this hand is a great thing to pick up on. He makes a standard size raise to what I believe was 21k, which was almost spot on with the pot. I read him for no weaker than AJ, but a very good chance he had, A3 suited due to his limp pre-flop. SB folds, action to me.

Knowing all this, I want to get the money in now and not have the crazy get great odds to draw at something really stupid. Here is the reason this play works so well. I ponder and think that If I make that big all in push right now, this guy is going to read me for a flush draw and snap me off. So that's exactly what I do, I over bet the pot and move all in. Crazy guy folds, and Mr. Ace rag, snaps me off. I flip my set over and he tables Ad 3d. I fade the 2 outs and now am in great position for final table!

NFL Playoffs 2013

Here are my predictions for the upcoming playoffs this year. This can be useful information for anyone doing fantasy football playoff's. The key to the FFP, is to pick the correct teams so you get points for the most weeks. The most weeks possible is 4, being a wild card team that makes it to the superbowl.

My predictions:
Wild Cards
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Washington
Cincinnati over Houston
Baltimore over Indianapolis
2nd Round
Green Bay over San Francisco
Seattle over Atlanta
New England over Baltimore
Denver over Cincinnati
NFC Championship
Green Bay over Seattle
AFC Championship
Denver over New England

Superbowl: Green Bay vs Denver

Tonights MNF Game

here is my post from covers.com
 http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101500771

Here is what I am seeing in a lot of other post's, picks and blogs...I am looking at a lot of bets for New England -4 and in the over 51.

First off this feels like a trap game all around. So this is my dilemma...there are a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball, and I am feeling like this is going to be a slower time of possession type game. Both teams have outstanding rb's and great ground games. We are just not use to New England wanting to run the ball and control the clock so much. But Houston is one of the best teams in the league at doing this...So if my thoughts would be right, the correct bet tonight is to fade both public perceptions, and go with Houston +4 in the under of 51.

What are your thoughts guys??
https://www.youtube.com/user/mbulleto

Open ended straight flush draws, played passively!?

This post is going to be a different way to play your monster drawing hands, such as the open ended straight flush. Normally most people see a huge draw like this and want to push the action right away. Not saying there is anything wrong with this, but I want to talk about one situation where you can disguise your hand and ultimately be more profitable.

First off this situation is going to play out much easier if you have position in the hand! This can be used in multiple spots, so for this example we will say you called a raise pre-flop by a pretty tight player in position. You take a flop with the 6 7 of diamonds. Flop comes out 4d 5d x. Now you have someone betting into you.You know his opening range and c-bet range is premium hands. He makes a standard c-bet, now this is where I think you will extract max value from this hand and not risk losing a huge pot, (although you are favored on this board against the likely over pair). You need to flat here! Why? For multiple reasons. 1 he is almost 100 percent of the time calling your 3-bet or all in, or he will 4 bet all in with an over pair. 2 it will give you a clear indication if he has AK, and gives up on the turn most likely. 3 and this is the best spot, you turn the nut straight and he leads into you again. By flatting once more, you are more than likely making him think "this guy must be on a flush draw!". If a blank falls on the river, he will ignore the straight on board, most of the time. This means there is a very good chance he leads again, or he will check to you. Now you can get as tricky as you want if he finally checked to you. You can make the over sized bet to make it look like you missed your flush and there's a good chance he will call with the over pair.

Remember this scenario is having everything work for you and you not missing your draw. The two good things if you do miss your draw by playing this hand this way. You are not broke, or out of the tournament, and you can still evaluate and decide if you can bluff him on the river if you miss.

Premium hands early in tournaments, early pos.

Today I want to discuss premium hands under the gun or +1+2 spots, in the early on parts of tournaments. The action starts with you and you look down at a hand as powerful as KK. What to do? In the early parts of a tournament, I think you should open your mind to playing this hand very stealth like. Limp this hand! There is usually plenty of action in the early stages of tournaments. If you limp here, and get a couple more limpers, than someone decides to make a standard 3x raise..You now have a pot built for you! Now this is where you need to make the right play and evaluate what kind of table you are at. If its at a very lose table, make the 3 bet big enough where you will get one or 2 callers pre-flop. If it's a very tight table you can make a smaller 3 bet and hope for the same outcome. Hands like KK AA QQ, you are not going to want multiple callers early on in tournaments. Why? Well, simply they are not easy hands to get away from! You hold AA on a board of, 27J rainbow. Looks like a safe board to bet, but if you miss played this pre-flop and let that guy in with the 77 or 22, your not going to like the outcome!

Hand Replay from 9/15/11

OK this will be one of many "Bad Beat Post's". [Q] [10] [2] [J] [9]

So today I'm playing poker at my local casino. You start with 5k in chips and blinds begin at 25-50. We are almost at break, with blinds being now 100-200. I have about 12k in chips, and I look down at pocket 10's. I'm in middle position with a raise by a tight player under the gun and a call in front of me. I elect to just call and see a flop in position, it folds around and the BB also calls. 4 way flop now, board comes out [Q] [2] [10]. BB leads out, 2 calls, and I raise up to 1,400. I get re raised by the BB, 1 fold, 1 all in. Back to me I raise and than the BB puts me all in. I had gotten my money in against just top pair for both. BB had KQ against my set of tens. I had just been 5 bet all in by nothing more than top pair. She has to catch perfect perfect in this spot to win this hand. Well, a jack fell on the turn, and a 9 fell on the river! Wouldn't you know it, lady luck was in her corner today as she catches her strait! This just goes to show, no matter how good you play nothing will beat dumb luck!